Do graduation rates and SAT scores correlate? Should they?

The leadership of the APS would have interest holders believe that graduation rates in the APS are improving and further, that the improvement is the product of their leadership.

At about the time students complete high school, in particular if they intend attend college, they take the SAT, ACT or both.  They are nationally normed cumulative tests.  The most recent data I found on APS' award winning website, link, shows little growth over roughly the same period they claim significant growth in graduation rates.

It seems discordant that measures of learning and proficiency like the SAT and ACT do not correlate more directly with graduation rates.  Are the tests not fair measures of the success a school district is having.  There are some problems with looking a longitudinal test results on standardized tests because the results are re-normed too frequently to compare long term, but they are still meaningful measure of short term growth or decline.

This discordance is relevant because growth in standardized test scores and graduation rates are both considered to be indicators of success.  APS claims considerable growth in graduation rates (as much growth as from 50 to 73% graduation rate in last several years) at the same time SAT and ACT scores remained considerably more static.  The ACT average for APS was in the very low 20s out of 36 possible.  The average SAT score for APS appears to be mid 1500's out of 1800 possible.

The disparity stems from an ability to manipulate graduation rates more easily than SAT and ACT scores.  A good part of the increase in APS graduation rates flowed from changes in the way the graduation rate was calculated, not necessarily because APS was doing a better job of educating students.  The changes; going from a four year plan to a five year plan, and dropping students who fail the 9th grade out of their cohort, raised graduation rates independently of educational growth.

Why are the most current results two years old?

Why aren't there more current data to consider?

In my experience with the APS, the truth is hard to find if it can be used to substantiate allegations of incompetence or corruption in the leadership of the APS.

The ban on truth seeking is enforced by a publicly funded private police force accountable only to the leadership of the APS. 

APS doesn't talk about the SAT and ACT because they are static and cast real doubt on their claims of dynamic growth in performance.




photo Mark Bralley